Here’s what you need to know:
- The death toll is edging up in several states, possibly ending months of declining national death totals.
- Other early hot spots curbed their outbreaks. But the United States is seeing record numbers of new cases.
- A war of words between Trump and Fauci is playing out through interviews with the news media.
- The Los Angeles teachers union calls to keep campuses closed in the fall.
- Facing a third wave of virus cases, Hong Kong shuts its schools.
- Cases in the U.S. military have more than doubled in one month.
- Is your state doing enough virus testing?
The death toll is edging up in several states, possibly ending months of declining national death totals.
The United States’s daily number of deaths from the coronavirus has risen recently in some of the nation’s most populous states, signaling a possible end to months of declining death totals nationally.
In Texas, officials announced 119 deaths on Wednesday, surpassing a daily record for deaths in the pandemic that the state had set only a day earlier. In Arizona, more than 200 deaths have been announced already this week, and the daily virus death toll in the state reached higher than ever. Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, South Dakota and Tennessee also set single-day death records this week.
The seven-day death average in the United States reached 608 on Thursday, up from 471 earlier in July, but still a fraction of the more than 2,200 deaths the country averaged each day in mid-April, when the situation in the Northeast was at its worst.
Some health experts cautioned that it was too early to predict a continuing trend from only a few days of data. But on Friday, Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, struck a different tone than President Trump has in recent days, saying that she expects to soon see an increase in deaths.
“In the United States, we have increased number of cases over the last particularly three weeks,” Dr. Birx said during a virtual panel on the virus organized by the International AIDS Society. “We have not seen this result in increased mortality, but that is expected as the disease continues to spread in some of our large metro areas where comorbidities exist.”
That steady downward trend in daily deaths began in April, after states instituted stay-at-home orders, and it continued through June, after states reopened their economies. The decline had continued over the past month even as cases of the virus skyrocketed in the South and West.
Deaths occur weeks after infections, so any rise in deaths would be expected to come later than a rise in cases. But public health experts said the diverging trends — newly rising cases but still declining daily deaths — had occurred largely because the new surge of virus cases also involved many younger and healthier people, who experts said were less likely to become seriously ill or die. Still, many experts predicted that the declining death tolls were unlikely to last as the virus continued spreading, passing from younger people to older people and others more vulnerable to the virus.
“We’ve always said the deaths are going to be coming soon enough and now they are,” Dr. Peter Jay Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, said. The age range of those who have died in recent days was not yet clear nationwide, though health officials in some communities said they were continuing to mainly see deaths among older people.
Some officials have attributed the drop in deaths over the last few months to improvements in treating the virus. Doctors have more tools today than they did in the spring, including the use of remdesivir, an anti-viral drug, and have learned from earlier outbreaks.
KEY DATA OF THE DAY
Other early hot spots curbed their outbreaks. But the United States is seeing record numbers of new cases.
Italy set its single-day record for new cases on March 21 with 6,557, but it now reports fewer than 200 a day. Spain, which was averaging 8,000 new cases a day during its peak in April, now averages a little over 400 a day. And Britain, which was averaging 5,500 new cases a day in mid-April, now averages 537.
In the United States, on the other hand, the spread of the virus is accelerating alarmingly: The nation reported more than 59,880 cases on Thursday, setting a single-day record for the sixth time in 10 days, according to a New York Times database.
Officials had hoped that the virus had reached its peak in the U.S. in the spring, when it set a single-day record of 36,738 new cases on April 24. New cases did initially begin to decline after that, but continued to average more than 20,000 a day. And as states have eased restrictions and allowed more businesses to reopen, new cases have exploded in recent weeks.
The contrast between the U.S. and the early European hot spots was underscored when, as hospitals across the American South and West were being flooded with virus patients, a hospital in the hard-hit province of Bergamo, Italy, which was once the center of the global outbreak, reported that its intensive care unit had no Covid-19 cases for the first time in 137 days.
Much of the surge in new cases has been driven largely by states in the South and the West that were among the first to ease restrictions.
On Friday, Ohio reported 1,525 new cases, exceeding its previous single-day record reported in April, and Montana added 127 cases, exceeding its single-day record set the previous day.
In Florida, officials on Friday announced 11,433 new cases, nearing the single-day record for new cases the state reported on July 4. The state also reported on Friday that there were 93 new deaths, a day after setting a single-day reporting record with 120 deaths. In Miami-Dade County, data reported on Thursday showed that 33.5 percent of virus tests had come back positive; on Friday, it was reported at 27.8 percent. The county has indicated that it aims to be at or below 10 percent.
At least six states set single-day case records on Thursday: Alabama, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Oregon and Texas. The numbers were especially striking in Texas, which set a record for the fourth consecutive day with more than 10,900 cases. Nearly one in 10 were in Hidalgo County, near the border with Mexico.
“Several months ago, I warned of a potential tsunami if we did not take this more seriously,” Richard F. Cortez, the county judge for Hidalgo, said in a statement on Thursday. “The tsunami is here.”
A war of words between Trump and Fauci is playing out through interviews with the news media.
President Trump and Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, are continuing to spar over the government’s response to the coronavirus, arguments playing out in media appearances over the past week.
One of the points of contention is the seriousness of the disease caused by the virus, which has been spreading across the country at its fastest pace yet. Mr. Trump has argued that it is mostly harmless.
“There were no tests for a new virus, but now we have tested over 40 million people,” Mr. Trump said in a speech on July 4. “But by so doing, we show cases, 99 percent of which are totally harmless.”
In an interview with The Financial Times that was published Friday, Dr. Fauci said he was not sure of the source of the data the president was referencing.
“I’m trying to figure out where the president got that number,” Dr. Fauci said. “What I think happened is that someone told him that the general mortality is about 1 percent. And he interpreted, therefore, that 99 percent is not a problem, when that’s obviously not the case.”
“Even if it doesn’t kill you, even if it doesn’t put you in the hospital, it can make you seriously ill,” Dr. Fauci said. And he called the pandemic “the big one.”
On Thursday night, during an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, Mr. Trump suggested Dr. Fauci was not credible.
“Dr. Fauci is a nice man, but he’s made a lot of mistakes,” Mr. Trump said. “A lot of them said, ‘Don’t wear a mask, don’t wear a mask,’” he added. “Now they are saying, ‘Wear a mask.’ A lot of mistakes were made, a lot of mistakes.”
Mr. Trump was referring to initial guidance early on during the pandemic against wearing a face covering for health precautions. Experts now encourage face masks, and in some parts of the country, wearing them is mandated. Mr. Trump has largely abstained from donning a face covering, and the issue has become contentious across the country.
Earlier on Thursday, Dr. Fauci told FiveThirtyEight that the political divisiveness in the country is hurting the response to the pandemic.
“You know, from experience historically, that when you don’t have unanimity in an approach to something, you’re not as effective in how you handle it,” Dr. Fauci said. “So I think you’d have to make the assumption that if there wasn’t such divisiveness, that we would have a more coordinated approach.”
The Los Angeles teachers union calls to keep campuses closed in the fall.
The Los Angeles teachers union called on the Los Angeles Unified School District on Friday to keep campuses closed when the semester begins on Aug. 18 and to focus on preparing for distance learning in the fall, the union said in a statement.
United Teachers Los Angeles said that the spike in coronavirus infections, paired with a lack of resources from state and federal governments for schools to increase public health measures, would not allow schools to reopen safely.
“It is time to take a stand against Trump’s dangerous, anti-science agenda that puts the lives of our members, our students, and our families at risk,” the union’s president, Cecily Myart-Cruz, said in the statement. “We all want to physically open schools and be back with our students, but lives hang in the balance. Safety has to be the priority. We need to get this right for our communities.”
The school authorities had no comment as of Friday morning.
The move by the union comes amid a nationwide debate among teachers, politicians and parents about when to resume in-person learning. Educators have widely noted that online classes are no substitute for the classroom experience, but teachers have also expressed concern for their own health and that of children if students are back in schools too soon.
After President Trump demanded Tuesday that schools reopen in the fall, the president of the National Education Association, the nation’s largest teachers’ union, said: “Our No. 1 priority is that we keep our students safe.”
In a joint statement, the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Federation of Teachers, the National Education Association and The School Superintendents Association, said Friday that schools in places with a high community spread of the virus should not be pushed to reopen, especially if local public health officials have advised otherwise.
“A one-size-fits-all approach is not appropriate for return to school decisions,” the statement said.
The associations called on the federal government to provide adequate resources to all schools, saying that withholding funding would further endanger students and teachers and hurt schools financially. Though the best option for children is always to learn in the classroom, the statement said, if public health experts do not deem it safe, online learning should be implemented.
Facing a third wave of virus cases, Hong Kong shuts its schools.
Hong Kong, which has been lauded for its aggressive handling of the outbreak, is confronting a third wave of infections, and on Friday shut down its school system.
The city of seven million people has reported more than 1,400 cases and just seven deaths during the outbreak. The widespread use of face masks when the epidemic first broke out — a legacy of the SARS epidemic that ravaged the city in 2003 — was credited with helping contain the virus. Authorities also forced all new arrivals to undergo a strict two-week quarantine. From mid-April through June, Hong Kong recorded very few locally transmitted infections.
But on Friday officials reported 38 new cases — 32 of which were transmitted locally — prompting the city to shut down schools starting Monday. The practical impact will be limited since most schools go on summer break the week after.
The city’s education secretary, Kevin Yueng, said he was concerned about the surge in local cases, noting some of them involved schools.
“After consideration and listening to expert’s advice, we decided that all kindergarten, primary school, secondary schools can start the summer holiday from next Monday,” he said.
The third wave, which comes after a second wave of infections surged in March and was contained by May, was a setback for a city that had largely returned to normal, with its many restaurants enjoying packed crowds and workers returning to their offices in recent months.
The latest spike in cases included local clusters linked to a nursing home and diners, causing the Chinese territory to also announce new social-distancing rules following a period of relaxation.
U.S. Roundup
Cases in the U.S. military have more than doubled in one month.
In one month, cases in the U.S. military have more than doubled, according to Pentagon data, a disturbing surge that mirrors a similar trend seen across the country.
On Friday, Pentagon statistics reported 16,637 cases in the entire military. On June 10, that number was just 7,408. Three people have died since March, including a sailor on the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, which returned to port in the United States earlier this week. More than 380 service members have been hospitalized.
The trend is likely tied to the military’s persistence on continuing exercises, training courses, and deployments. Increased testing could also be a factor. Late last month more than 80 students at a survival course, known as SERE, tested positive.
In Australia, where more than a thousand Marines recently started their annual months-long deployment in Darwin, at least one Marine was found to have the virus, according to a Marine news release on Friday. And on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, docked in San Diego, nearly a dozen sailors have tested positive and around 100 have been isolated.
In other news from around the United States:
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Mr. Trump had been scheduled to hold a rally on Saturday in New Hampshire, one of just two states experiencing declines in cases. Officials there had still been concerned, but on Friday, Mr. Trump postponed the rally, citing an incoming tropical storm.
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Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, signed an order requiring people in the state to wear masks in indoor public spaces and in crowded outdoor areas, and requiring businesses to turn away people without masks. It is punishable by a $500 fine, but no term of confinement.
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In South Carolina, the governor said Friday that the sale of all alcoholic drinks in restaurants and bars would be banned beginning Saturday night, saying he was concerned about spread among young people. Nevada’s governor also said that as of 11:59 p.m. on Friday, the state will close bars in some counties. Bars in Las Vegas and Reno that don’t serve food will be affected by the restrictions.
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More than 1,000 employees of the Transportation Security Administration have tested positive, according to data released by the agency on Thursday.
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Kentucky’s governor announced that residents will be required to wear face coverings in many public settings, including any indoor space in which it is difficult to maintain distances of at least six feet.
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New York City’s mayor extended the city’s prohibition on large public gatherings through Sept. 30, adding the West Indian American Day Parade, the Dominican Day Parade and the Feast of San Gennaro to the list of popular events to be scrapped this year.
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San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey, a six-time All-Star and a former National League most valuable player, announced that he was opting out of Major League Baseball’s abbreviated season because he and his wife, Kristen Posey, had recently adopted twin daughters who were born prematurely and he did not want to endanger their health by increasing his exposure. By skipping the 60-game season scheduled to start July 23, Posey, 33, could forfeit nearly $8 million, which the Giants are not required to pay him.
Is your state doing enough virus testing?
The number of daily coronavirus tests conducted in the United States is only 39 percent of the level considered necessary to mitigate the spread of the virus, as many states struggle to ramp up testing to outpace the record number of cases in recent week.
An average of 634,000 people per day were tested over the past week, according to data collected by the Covid Tracking Project, far below the current nationwide target of 1.6 million daily tests. The target, which is based on a methodology developed by researchers at the Harvard Global Health Institute, is different for each state and varies over time as infection rates change.
The Harvard researchers say that at minimum there should be enough daily capacity to test anyone who has flu-like symptoms and an additional 10 people for any symptomatic person who tests positive for the virus.
Aside from current testing levels, another important indicator of a state’s testing performance is its positive test rate, which is the percent of tests that come back positive. Lower rates suggest that testing is more widespread and that it is not limited to those with severe symptoms. Positive rates should be at or below 5 percent for at least 14 days before a state or country can safely reopen, according to the World Health Organization. In the United States, the current positive rate is 8 percent.
The level of testing recommended by the researchers at Harvard would require about double the number of daily tests currently being performed. That level of testing, according to the researchers, is the minimum necessary to mitigate the disease. Their estimates for the testing required to suppress the spread of the virus are much higher.
GLOBAL ROUNDUP
In hard-hit South Africa, deeply important burial traditions have been upended by the pandemic.
In March, South Africa imposed one of the world’s most severe lockdowns in response to the coronavirus, restricting travel between provinces. This disrupted a deeply important cultural practice for many Black residents in Cape Town: returning the bodies of family members to the neighboring Eastern Cape Province for burial.
The new rules around travel for funerals are so complex, and add so much extra expense, that they have become practically insurmountable for many families, according to funeral directors and community leaders in Cape Town.
For some poorer families, the rules are forcing a choice between breaking tradition and breaking the law.
“It’s a big trauma,” said Chris Stali, the director of a funeral parlor in Khayelitsha, the informal settlement on the outskirts of Cape Town where Mr. Mweli lived while working in the city.
While South Africa is now attempting to reopen, and is easing some restrictions, the rules around funerals are still in place. Attendance at funerals is capped at 50, and overnight vigils and body viewings are banned.
The regulations have been felt especially acutely in Cape Town, the initial epicenter of the country’s outbreak. South Africa now ranks 13th in the world for coronavirus cases and is experiencing an enormous rise.
In other news from around the world:
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An outbreak in Tokyo’s nightlife districts pushed Japan’s capital to another daily record on Friday as it recorded 243 new cases. Gov. Yuriko Koike said at a news conference that about three-quarters of the cases were among people in their 20s and 30s and that the overwhelming majority of them exhibited mild symptoms. Japan has been relatively successful in containing the virus, even after lifting a state of emergency at the end of May.
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The World Health Organization on Thursday acknowledged that droplets carrying the coronavirus may be airborne indoors and that people who spend long periods in crowded settings with inadequate ventilation may be at risk of becoming infected. It was a reversal that many scientists said was long overdue.
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Australia will halve the number of citizens and residents permitted to return home each week — to 4,000 from about 8,000 — to ease pressure on quarantine facilities, Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Friday. The border has been closed to everyone except returning citizens and permanent residents since March, but a fresh outbreak is now surging through Melbourne, the country’s second-biggest city.
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China’s customs authority on Friday said it had suspended imports from three Ecuadorean companies after the coronavirus was detected on a container and on packages of frozen shrimp from Ecuador, China’s state broadcaster reported. China has increased its inspection and testing of food imports after an outbreak in Beijing last month and reports that traces of the virus were found on a cutting board used for imported salmon. China has also already suspended imports from 23 meat producers, including Germany’s Tönnies, American meat giant Tyson, Brazil’s Agra and the United Kingdom’s Tulip because of outbreaks at their plants, Bi Kexin, a senior Chinese customs official, said Friday.
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Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte of Italy said Friday that it was likely that the country’s six-month state of emergency would be extended beyond the July 31 deadline. The measure permits the government to act quickly during a crisis, including allowing pensions to be paid on different days, so banks were not overrun, and allowing people to work from home.
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Journalists with Al Jazeera are under investigation by the Malaysian police for sedition and defamation after the news network broadcast a documentary showing a military-style crackdown on undocumented migrant workers over coronavirus fears.
Wall Street reverses losses early in the day as stocks climb along with oil prices.
U.S. stocks rose on Friday, and Wall Street was on track to end a volatile week with another weekly gain.
The S&P 500 rose about half a percent, after an early dip, while markets in London, Frankfurt and Paris recouped losses to climb about 1 percent. In Asia, news of an apparently widening outbreak of infections in Hong Kong had sent shares skidding.
Some of the news buoying the U.S. market came from drugmaker Gilead Sciences, which said that remdesivir, an antiviral that it is testing as a Covid-19 treatment, cut mortality risk in patients, and did so across racial and ethnic groups. Companies that stand to benefit the most from a reopening of the economy, and a return to normal behavior by American consumers — like airlines and retailers — fared well.
Oil prices also reversed early losses, with the American crude benchmark crossing back above $40 a barrel despite a warning from the International Energy Agency that surges in the United States and Latin America were “casting a shadow” over the oil market.
Trading has become more volatile lately over worries about the virus and restrictions that are being reimposed as a result. The market has alternated between gains and losses each day this week, but is on track to end the week with a gain of more than 1 percent.
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Cruise operators led the gains in the S&P 500. Carnival jumped more than 10 percent after it outlined a plan to resume operations in a “phased manner,” for which it did not offer a timeline. It said on Thursday that its AIDA unit in Germany would begin cruises in August. The company also said it had new bookings for 2021.
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The U.S. subsidiary of Muji, the Japanese lifestyle brand, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Delaware on Friday, according to a court filing. Muji’s owner, Ryohin Keikaku Co., said in a statement that the brand had been hit hard by the coronavirus, with all 18 of its stores closed since mid-March.
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In Europe, some company earnings reports caused bumps in share prices. The German biotech firm Qiagen, whose products and services are used in virus testing, said its adjusted earnings per share were expected to rise nearly 70 percent this year.
A judge sees ‘likelihood of success’ for the Harvard-M.I.T. challenge to new Trump rules on foreign students.
A federal judge in Boston said in a court hearing on Friday that a challenge to new federal rules stripping visas from foreign students who planned to study entirely online in the fall had a high likelihood of success, but she put off any decision until another hearing on Tuesday.
“My gut on it is that the big ticket item here is going to be a likelihood of success on the merits,” said Judge Allison D. Burroughs of the United States District Court for the district of Massachusetts.
Lawyers for Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology argued in court papers that the new rules from the Trump administration would cruelly and recklessly upend the lives of tens of thousands of international students and threaten public health. The universities asked for an emergency order stopping the administration from imposing the new guidelines, which were issued Monday, after many if not most colleges and universities across the country issued reopening plans that had been months in the making.
Shortly after the hearing, President Trump tweeted that he was ordering the Treasury Department to re-examine the tax-exempt status and funding of universities, saying too many “are about Radical Left Indoctrination, not Education.”
Some one million international students study in the United States each year. The new rules from Immigration and Customs Enforcement require students to take some in-person classes or face the threat of having their visas revoked and being forced to leave the country.
Universities like Harvard and M.I.T. want to welcome students back to campus, the court papers said, but had determined that “it is not yet prudent to do so.” Harvard announced this week that its undergraduate courses will be given entirely online, although some students will be invited back to campus. M.I.T. has said that most of its courses will be taught online.
Although the government has not yet responded in court, the White House press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, defended the administration’s actions at a news conference earlier this week.
“You don’t get a visa for taking online classes from, let’s say, University of Phoenix. So why would you if you were just taking online classes, generally?” she told reporters.
The administration directive, the university lawyers argued in a motion supporting a restraining order, “has the hallmarks of a politically motivated maneuver” to force schools to reopen “without regard to the public health judgment of the schools and experts about whether that is safe for students, faculty and staff.”
‘Like a time bomb’: How U.S. immigration officials helped spread the virus.
As lockdowns and other measures have been taken around the world to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency has continued to move detainees from state to state and deport them. And with them, the virus.
An investigation by The Times, in collaboration with The Marshall Project, reveals how unsafe conditions and scattershot testing helped turn ICE into a domestic and global spreader of the virus — and how pressure from the Trump administration led other countries to take in sick deportees.
Thirty immigrant detainees described cramped and unsanitary detention centers where social distancing was nearly impossible and protective gear almost nonexistent.
“It was like a time bomb,” one Cuban immigrant held in Louisiana said.
The Times spoke to at least four people who had been deported — to El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti and India — and who had tested positive for the virus shortly after arriving from the United States.
The governments of 11 countries have confirmed that hundreds of deportees returned home from the United States with the virus. ICE said last week that it was still able to test only a sampling of immigrants before sending them home.
Much is still unknown about how the virus affects pregnant women.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a report last month on pregnant women with Covid-19, suggesting that they might be at higher risk for severe illness. While the study had a large sample size, more than 8,000 women, it raised more questions than it answered, and the results were difficult to interpret.
With so many new details about the virus emerging, Christina Caron, a reporter who covers parenting for The New York Times, asks: why do we still know so little about how the virus affects pregnant women and their babies?
The C.D.C. reported that pregnant women with the virus were more likely to be hospitalized, admitted to an intensive care unit and put on a ventilator than infected women who are not pregnant. But researchers lacked data to say whether the pregnant women were hospitalized because of labor and delivery, or because of complications from Covid-19.
And the data on whether or not infected pregnant women were admitted to intensive care units, or required mechanical ventilation, was missing for about 75 percent of the patients.
Despite the caveats of the C.D.C. study, it remains a “signal” that pregnant women could be more susceptible to severe symptoms, said Allison Bryant, M.D., a member of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists’ working group on Covid-19 and pregnancy. She added that “it’s not super surprising given what we know about other respiratory illnesses like flu.”
Researchers in other countries have found similar signals.
Data gathered from the U.K. Obstetric Surveillance System showed in May that 10 percent of 427 pregnant women with the coronavirus admitted to hospitals between March 1 and April 14 needed respiratory support. Three of them died from complications of Covid-19.
Air travel in the age of coronavirus: a visual diary.
The photographer Moris Moreno flew from Seattle to Boston in June with his family, and documented his journey to show how the virus has changed air travel. His trip isn’t representative of all flights, but it shows how masks, social distancing and protective plexiglass have become part of the flying experience.
Here’s what you need to know about flying now.
Reporting was contributed by Yuriria Avila, Brooks Barnes, Alan Blinder, Gillian R. Brassil, Dan Bilefsky, Julia Calderone, Michael Cooper, Kimiko de Freytas-Tamura, Hailey Fuchs, Shane Goldmacher, J. David Goodman, Kevin Granville, Kimon de Greef, Maggie Haberman, Mohammed Hadi, Anemona Hartocollis, Barbara Harvey, Shawn Hubler, Makiko Inoue, Mike Ives, Miriam Jordan, Annie Karni, Emily Kassie, Gwen Knapp, Gina Kolata, Anatoly Kurmanaev, Isabella Kwai, Jasmine C. Lee, Michael Levenson, Cao Li, Peter Luhanga, Apoorva Mandavilli, Giulia McDonnell Nieto del Rio, Barbara Marcolini, Alex Leeds Matthews, Sarah Mervosh, David Montgomery, Morris Moreno, Benjamin Mueller, Judith Newman, Richard C. Paddock, Elian Peltier, Elisabetta Povoledo, Adam Rasgon, Stanley Reed, Motoko Rich, Mitch Smith, Farah Stockman, Eileen Sullivan, Jim Tankersley, Maria Silvia Trigo, Noah Weiland and Elaine Yu.
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