Despite the number of daily tests falling slightly in Florida, the percentage of tests that come back positive has remained elevated.
Photo: Wilfredo Lee/Associated PressSome U.S. hot spots appeared to be seeing a respite from skyrocketing coronavirus case counts, as the number of confirmed infections in the U.S. dropped below 60,000 for the second day in a row.
But for some states, the drop in new cases also coincided with a drop in testing over the past week, even as the number of tests performed nationally has grown.
Coronavirus cases in the U.S. rose by more than 56,000 on Monday, the second consecutive day the tally was below 60,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic passed 148,000.
The seven-day average of new cases in the U.S. is 65,083, lower than the country’s 14-day new case average of 66,150, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins data, suggesting that the number of reported cases have declined. Reporting measures vary from state to state, but the seven and 14-day averages help smooth out anomalies from daily reporting gaps.
Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering
Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering
At more than 65,000, both averages remain well above the levels in early June, when an average of about 20,000 cases were being reported daily.
Almost 20 states, including several hot spots, have seven-day new case averages that are less than their 14-day averages, according to the Journal’s analysis.
In Texas, for example, the seven-day new case average is 8,079, compared with the state’s 14-day average of 9,326. In Florida, the seven-day new case average is 10,336 compared with a 14-day average of 10,737. Arizona and California also followed this trend.
Reporting on some improving coronavirus metrics in Austin, Texas, Mayor Steve Adler on Monday cautioned against complacency.
“Last time we had numbers that went down like this, we all relaxed, we all started living like the virus wasn’t here, and that’s all the virus needed to jump back and forth between people,” he said.
Public health experts say a variety of factors are contributing to this small decline in new cases a day in states that experienced recent surges in the disease, including stricter restrictions like bar and gym closures and changes in individual behaviors like more robust mask-wearing.
But decreased testing capacity and delays in test results is also a significant factor, experts say. The seven-day average of tests in Florida fell to 54,272 from 58,990 a week earlier, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project. In Arizona, the seven day testing average dropped to 12,116 from 13,014.
The number of tests performed daily in Texas climbed steadily throughout June and into July. The seven-day average of tests has hovered around 65,000 for the past week.
Nationally, testing has ramped up to a seven-day average of more than 800,000 from about 560,000 a month ago.
“Even though testing capacity has increased, there’s maybe not enough laboratorians to run all of those tests and there might just not be a capacity at the laboratories to process all of them in a timely manner,” said Erika Austhof, an epidemiologist at the University of Arizona Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health.
Demand for tests has strained supply chains and wait times for results have grown as laboratories have become overloaded. After a widespread push to offer tests to anyone who wanted them, some states such as California are narrowing criteria to focus on hospitalized patients, people with Covid-19-like symptoms and those that have come in close contact with someone who was infected.
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Testing difficulties can have an impact on the number of cases reported each day, said Melissa Nolan, an infectious disease expert and epidemiology professor at the University of South Carolina. “If you can’t do universal testing and then you start prioritizing out, it’s hard to compare prior weeks to this one,” Dr. Nolan said.
Despite the number of daily tests falling slightly in Florida, the percentage of tests that come back positive has remained elevated. The seven-day moving average of positive tests, known as the positivity rate, has hovered around 19% over the past week, according to data from Johns Hopkins. In Texas, that figure has dropped to around 12% from around 15% a week earlier.
New analyses from a coalition of public-health experts and crisis-response specialists show the overwhelming majority of states don’t meet the CDC’s criteria for lifting restrictions.
Nationally, the moving seven-day average of positive tests is at 8.1%, according to data from Johns Hopkins. In mid-June, it was at around 4%.
In their criteria for reopening economies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House say states or regions should report a decline in documented cases or a decline in positivity rates within a two-week period.
New analyses from a coalition of public-health experts and crisis-response specialists show the overwhelming majority of states don’t meet the CDC’s criteria for lifting restrictions.
Pushing down the percentage of positive cases is seen as an important step for reopening schools.
Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, one of the country’s largest teachers unions, said Tuesday the union’s executive council would back locally authorized “safety strikes” as a last resort to ensure safety at schools during the pandemic.
“If the authorities don’t get it right, and they don’t protect the safety and health of those we represent and those we serve, nothing is off the table—not advocacy or protests, negotiations, grievances or lawsuits, or, if necessary as a last resort, safety strikes,” Ms. Weingarten told delegates meeting virtually at a union convention.
The AFT council’s resolution said school buildings can open safely only in places where the average daily community infection rate among those tested for coronavirus is below 5%, and the region has effective practices for contact tracing, among other criteria.
While some states are seeing a drop in reported cases, in others, like Illinois, Mississippi, Missouri and Oklahoma, the seven-day average of new cases is higher than the two-week average, which implies new cases are ticking up.
Several states are also still grappling with increased coronavirus-related hospitalizations and deaths. North Carolina reported its highest number of hospitalizations during the pandemic so far, with 1,244 people in hospitals Monday.
The Florida Department of Health reported 186 new coronavirus-related deaths among residents as of midnight Monday, the highest recorded increase over a 24-hour period. State reporting on coronavirus deaths vary, and it’s possible deaths reported on a day may not have occurred over the past 24 hours.
In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp withdrew a request for an emergency court hearing in his lawsuit against Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms over the city’s mask mandate and other coronavirus restrictions. The cancellation of the hearing, which was to take place Tuesday, marked a potential thaw in virus-related negotiations between Mr. Kemp and Ms. Bottoms, after a Georgia judge ordered them into mediation last week.
Sources: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering; the Lancet; Associated Press; U.S. Census
Vaccine research moved forward, with two of the most advanced experimental coronavirus vaccines—developed by Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc. —entering the third phase of their studies.
World-wide, total confirmed coronavirus cases neared 16.5 million as the global death toll surpassed 654,000, according to Johns Hopkins.
India, which trails only the U.S. and Brazil in terms of case numbers, reported 47,703 new infections, while the death toll climbed by 654 to 33,425, data from the federal Health Ministry showed. The country has more than 1.48 million cases.
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Iran’s daily death toll hit a new high Tuesday as authorities grappled with a second wave of infections. More than 200 people have died each day for the past two weeks, taking the total to nearly 16,000.
Write to Allison Prang at allison.prang@wsj.com and Jennifer Calfas at Jennifer.Calfas@wsj.com
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