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Quick Fix
— There are 99 days to go until Election Day. Here are all the big dates you should circle on your calendar between now and then.
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— Joe Biden has yet to announce his vice presidential pick, something he’s expected to do before the Democratic convention. POLITICO has a guide to all the contenders on the shortlist.
— A pop-up super PAC is coming to the defense of GOP Rep. Steve Watkins in KS-02, as the embattled congressman tries to hold off a primary challenge on Aug. 4.
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Days until the Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries: 8
Days until the Tennessee primary: 10
Days until the Democratic convention: 21
Days until the Republican convention: 28
Days until the 2020 election: 99
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99 PROBLEMS — We’ve got just 99 days to go until Election Day — which will both go by in a blink of an eye and seem like the longest 99 days in American history. As a service to you, dear reader, here are the big dates on the calendar between now and then.
— Aug. 1(ish): Biden announces his running mate. The beginning of the month has been a soft, self-imposed deadline for Biden to name his vice presidential pick, and that day is fast approaching. The campaign hasn’t given a firm date on an announcement, but it is expected to come shortly after the calendar turns on Saturday. (More below on the contenders!)
— Aug. 17-20: The Democratic convention. Democrats have already told their delegates to stay home for their convention, which will be “anchored” in Milwaukee. Satellite sites have been promised across the country, but we still don’t have much of a picture of what the convention will actually look like.
— Aug. 24-27: The Republican convention. Like the Democratic convention, we don’t really know what the Republican convention will look like after President Donald Trump abruptly pulled the plug on the big celebration in Jacksonville, Fla., last week. The official business of the convention will be held Aug. 21-24 in Charlotte, N.C., the former host of the convention.
— Sept. 18: Early, in-person voting starts in Minnesota. Minnesota has the earliest in-person early voting, according to a rundown from the National Conference of State Legislatures, starting 46 days before Election Day. But other states quickly join Minneosta after that, and ballots will be mailed in some states around this time, too. That’s all to say: Expect many, many votes to be cast other than in-person on Election Day in 2020, as the country still grapples with the pandemic.
— Sept. 29: The first presidential debate at Notre Dame. At various points in the cycle, there’s been speculation that somebody won’t participate in these debates. There’s been, thus far, zero evidence for that. Team Biden has said the former vice president is looking forward to the debates, and Trump’s campaign has pushed for even more debates. Assuming the idle chatter is exactly that, this is the first time Biden and Trump will share the stage.
— Oct. 7: The vice presidential debate in Salt Lake City.
— Oct. 15: The second presidential debate in Miami. This debate was moved to Miami after the University of Michigan pulled out from hosting over coronavirus concerns. But what form this debate (and the other ones) may take is still up in the air. In June, Miami’s mayor told POLITICO that he could see the debate being held without an audience.
— Oct. 22: The third (and last) presidential debate in Nashville. This is also the deadline for the pre-general election campaign finance reports with the FEC, the last time we’ll get a peek at the finances of the presidential campaigns, downballot candidates and super PACs before the election.
— Nov. 3: Election Day. The big day! And, stop me if you’ve read this one before in Score: It is entirely possible (if not probable) that we won’t know the winner of the presidency, or which party controls the House and Senate, when everyone eventually goes to sleep on election night. The expected influx of mail-in ballots means that in-person voting alone will likely not be determinative for close races.
Presidential Big Board
VEEPSTAKES — Biden’s decision for his running mate is still up in the air, with about a dozen women who have seen their name kicked around to join the ticket. The POLITICO 2020 team has been tracking all the candidates, and we’re out with a new guide to help keep the candidates all straight. We have biographies on all the contenders, and pluses and minuses for each candidate should they be the one on the ticket.
What do we know about what Biden is looking for in a running mate? He’s looking for someone he is “simpatico” with, and he has said it is important that whoever is running mate is ready to govern on day one.
— The behind the scenes running mate shuffling seems to always come back to one candidate: California Sen. Kamala Harris. POLITICO’s Natasha Korecki, Chris Cadelago and Marc Caputo reported, based off more than four dozen interviews, that she’s seen as the best “do no harm” choice — but that there’s a contingent of Democrats lobbying against her.
— The dark horse on the list is probably Susan Rice, who has never ran for elected office but has one thing that other candidates lack: “a lengthy history as Biden’s colleague at the highest levels of government,” The Washington Post’s Sean Sullivan and Karen DeYoung wrote.
POLLS POLLS POLLS — A bunch of pollsters celebrated the 100-day mark on Sunday by releasing battleground polls. For that, we’ve very grateful. Broadly, the polls all brought good news for Biden. A rundown:
— Arizona: Biden had a narrow lead in a pair of polls here. In a CNN/SRSS poll, Biden was at 49 percent to 45 percent for Trump (873 registered voters; July 18-24; +/- 3.8 percentage point MoE). In an NBC News/Marist poll, Biden is at 50 percent to 45 percent for Trump (826 registered voters; July 14-22; +/- 4.1 percentage point MoE).
Relatedly: Marist is not weighing its state polls by education, which proved to be a very controversial decision on polling Twitter. The short version is that Marist is focusing on geography, and that “enhanced samples” skew results — the Marist folks explain their rationale on the latest episode of their podcast, and here’s NBC News’ writeup from Mark Murray and Carrie Dann.
— Florida: Biden also has a narrow lead here in a CNN/SRSS poll. He’s at 51 percent to 46 percent for Trump (880 registered voters; July 18-24; +/- 3.8 percentage point MoE).
— Michigan: Two polls have Biden ahead, with differing margins. A CBS News/YouGov poll has Biden with a smaller lead, at 48 percent to 42 percent for Trump (1,156 likely voters; July 21-24; +/- 3.4 percentage point MoE). In a CNN/SRSS poll, Biden was up by a bigger margin: 52 percent to 40 percent (927 registered voters; July 18-24; +/- 3.8 percentage point MoE).
— Ohio: The race here is deadlocked. A CBS/YouGov poll has Trump at 46 percent, to 45 percent for Biden (1,211 likely voters; July 21-24; +/- 3.6 percentage point MoE).
THE LIST — Trump has once again promised he’d only nominate future Supreme Court justices off a list of conservative candidates, but “aides and outside advisers have become increasingly divided over its content and length” of said list, POLITICO’s Gabby Orr wrote. Some recent Supreme Court rulings have seen otherwise conservative justices breaking away from positions held by activists.
JUST SUPER — America First Action, the pro-Trump super PAC, is getting outspent on the airwaves by a constellation of Democratic super PACs, which is starting to worry Trump supporters and donors, NBC News’ Shannon Pettypiece and Ben Kamisar reported. Over the weekend, Trump also appeared as a “special guest” for an AFA fundraiser at his New Jersey golf club, and the super PAC also released an ad on Friday saying Biden’s America would be unsafe.
THE SUNSHINE STATE — A group of Democratic field organizers in Florida sent a letter to party leadership criticising the campaign in the state, saying that the campaign was “suppressing the Hispanic vote” and alleging a chaotic organization, per the Miami Herald’s Bianca Padró Ocasio. Jackie Lee, the campaign’s state director, said the campaign and state leadership is discussing issues with the field organizers’ union.
— More Than A Vote, the group founded by LeBron James and other Black athletes and celebrities, said it would donate $100,000 to the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition to pay court debts of ex-felons in Florida so they can register to vote, POLITICO Florida’s Gary Fineout reported.
THE PROCESS — Georgia’s primary election has become the poster child for a problematic election in the midst of a pandemic (although the Peach State was far from the only state with serious problems). And while there’s been plenty of finger-pointing in the state, “it has become increasingly clear that what happened in June was a collective collapse,” The New York Times’ Danny Hakim, Reid Epstein and Stephanie Saul wrote.
— Trump has frequently used the case of alleged election fraud in Paterson, N.J., to hammer home doubts about mail-in voting. But leaders in the city say the president is “vastly oversimplifying what took place in a local election, using it to serve his own political purposes and overstating the extent to which problems in their city serve as some of kind national cautionary tale,” The Washington Post’s Rosalind Helderman wrote.
Down the Ballot
PRIMARY PROBLEMS — A super PAC is up with a new ad attacking embattled Watkins’ primary challenger Jake LaTurner is KS-02. The ad from The Heartland PAC calls him “just another tax and take politician.” This is, once again, a pop-up super PAC that was formed after relevant reporting deadlines for the Aug. 4 primary, meaning we won’t know who is funding it until after the primary.
Advertising Analytics tracks $56,000 in TV spending for the group. The group also reported $17,000 in direct- mail costs opposing LaTurner to the FEC on Saturday.
In last cycle’s primary, Watkins’ father almost single-handedly funded a super PAC that spent $682,000 in independent expenditures supporting Watkins and opposing his then-competitor for the nomination. (Incidentally, that super PAC’s termination was recently approved by the FEC, and this new pop-up super PAC doesn’t share any details in common, like a treasurer or bank.)
— With the Sept. 1 primary looming, Rep. Joe Kennedy and Sen. Ed Markey took the stage for their second-to-last Democratic primary debate last night, POLITICO Playbook Massachusetts author Stephanie Murray wrote in to Score. For two candidates who have battled in deep-blue Massachusetts for nearly a year over who is the more progressive Democrat, it should have been an easy question: Does GOP Gov. Charlie Baker deserve a third term? "Let's see where we are in 2022," Markey said. But would you vote for Baker? "That depends on the field," Kennedy answered.
Markey and Kennedy dodging a question on whether they'd vote against a Republican after calling for a Green New Deal and single-payer health care seems bizarre, but it illustrates a quirk in Bay State politics. Baker's sky-high approval rating is actually better among Democrats than it is among Republicans.
POLL POSITION — Some of those battleground polls also brought us Senate numbers. In the CNN/SRSS Arizona poll, Democracy Mark Kelly led GOP Sen. Martha McSally 50 percent to 43 percent. In the Marist/NV poll, Kelly is at 53 percent to 41 percent for McSally.
And in Michigan, in the CNN/SSRS poll, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is at 54 percent, to 38 percent for Republican John James.
HELP! I NEED SOMEBODY — House Republicans are pleading with the RNC and the Trump campaign to write a check to the NRCC, The Washington Post’s Rachael Bade, Josh Dawsey and Michelle Ye Hee Lee reported, but those pleas have gone unanswered. The Post reported that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had repeatedly asked Jared Kushner, but the money has not come. “Transfer requests like these are standard every cycle and final decisions typically aren’t made until after Labor Day,” RNC chair Ronna McDaniel said in a statement in response to the story.
ON THE AIRWAVES — Keep Kansas Great PAC, a super PAC supporting GOP Rep. Roger Marshall’s Senate bid, is up with an ad attacking the pop-up super PAC in the state, saying “the Democrats are behind it” and “trying to trick you into voting for a weaker candidate.” The ad also criticizes Marshall’s primary opponents, Kris Kobach and Bob Hamilton.
Hamilton is also up with a pair of ads featuring his wife, Teresa Hamilton, praising him. A real sign of the times line: Teresa Hamilton says her husband “hates Hillary” and “we can’t say what you say about Pelosi” … but makes no mention of either Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who is the Democratic leader in the chamber Hamilton wants to be in, or the current Democratic presidential nominee.
— GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte released an ad targeting his gubernatorial opponent, Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney, emphasising Cooney’s long political career and saying he supports raising taxes.
— The NRCC and GOP Rep. John Katko are up with a coordinated buy in NY-24, saying Democrat Dana Balter isn’t telling the truth on taxes and that she’ll raise them.
SAFE SEAT SCRAMBLE — The race to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Francis Rooney in the ruby red FL-19 is a scramble to see who can best tie themselves to Trump, Gary reported (for Pros). “It comes down how often can you make the word ‘Trump’ subject, verb and object,’’ said Trey Radel, who represented the district in Congress until 2014, when he resigned following a drug arrest. “God forbid you supported the Republican nominee for president against Obama,” referencing support for now-Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) 2012 presidential bid being a lightning rod in the race.
RE: THE MEMO — Do you like reading memos? If so, you’re in luck: Both the DSCC and the NRSC put out 100-days-left memos on the battle for the Senate.
DON’T DO THAT — Iowaa Republican Ashley Hinson cut ties with the Republican consulting firm FP1 Strategies after The New York Times reported last week that her campaign had repeatedly plagiarized, the Des Moines Register’s Stephen Gruber-Miller reported. Hinson said that an employee from the firm was responsible for the plagiarism.
IN THE STATES — A fire destroyed much of the Arizona Democratic Party and the Maricopa Democratic Party’s offices last week, and investigators believe the fire was intentionally set, the Arizona Republic’s Audrey Jensen, Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Helena Wegner reported.
CODA — PANDEMIC HEADLINE OF DAY: “Tailors Know New Yorkers’ Pandemic Secret: ‘Everybody Got Fat!’” — From The New York Times.
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