Pelosi tries again, markets start to worry about safety of U.S. debt, and a check on inflation.
Infighting
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to try again today for a vote on the $550 billion bipartisan infrastructure bill which progressives in her party have held up as they want President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion package passed first. While there was a small win for Congress with the aversion of a government shutdown yesterday, the standoff over the larger spending proposals in proving a stern test for Biden’s negotiating skills. White House officials expressed optimism that the infrastructure bill would pass today.
Debt ceiling
The debt ceiling standoff is starting to be taken more seriously by markets with only 17 days left to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s deadline for a deal to avoid default. Speaking to the House Financial Services Committee yesterday she said there may be a few extra day’s grace on the deadline, but reiterated a default would be “ catastrophic” for the country. The Washington-based Institute of International Finance said in a report that U.S. debt appears to already be losing favor as a haven, while Germany and Japan remain popular. Investors are demanding a premium to hold bills that come due in October and November, with those instruments having noticeably higher yields.
Prices
Inflation in the euro area hit 3.4% in September, a 13-year high, with core prices accelerating 1.9% when volatile components like fuel and food are excluded. There’s not much hope for an easing of inflationary pressures in the short term with natural gas prices hitting another record high this morning and China pushing energy firms to secure supplies at all costs. For the U.S., data due later is expected to show some short term relief with the core PCE deflator forecast to drop slightly to 3.5%.
Markets drop
Yesterday’s miserable end to the last quarter for stocks has set the tone for the start of this one with major global equity gauges all in the red. While China and Hong Kong were closed for the holiday, Japan’s Topix index closed 2.2% lower. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had slipped 0.9% by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with investors preferring defensive names. S&P 500 futures pointed to more losses at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.484%, oil moved lower towards $74 a barrel and gold was down slightly.
Coming up...
The U.S. PCE report and Canadian GDP for July are at 8:30 a.m. September manufacturing PMI is at 9:45 a.m. with ISM manufacturing and University of Michigan sentiment for the month at 10:00 a.m. The latest Baker Hughes rig count is at 1:00 p.m. Auto sales for September are expected to show a significant decline from the same period last year. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speak later.
What we've been reading
Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
And finally, here’s what Katie’s interested in this morning
Watching nominal Treasury yields has been entertaining enough, but as it often is, the real action is under the hood. So-called real rates -- the yield on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, which strip out the effects of price pressures -- have been making a run for it. While still deeply negative, 10-year real rates careened roughly 14 basis points higher in September, building on August’s nearly 15 basis point jump.
There are a few potential reasons why. Real yields are often viewed as a proxy for growth expectations, but that’s probably not the proper takeaway given that the TIPS market is in such a “weird spot” at the moment after eighteen months of the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying, according to Jefferies economist Thomas Simons.
“Post-September FOMC, there’s been a big shift in inflation expectations. It was viewed as pretty hawkish, which has reduced the demand for inflation protection,” Simons said. And then there’s the whole turbocharged taper to worry about. “TIPS liquidity is so spotty, the market has the potential to take a hit in the tapering process without Fed support too.”
Even still, there’s probably some economic signal to glean from the rise in real yields as the “back to office” narrative begins to pick up steam again, according to Ben Jeffery at BMO. The jump is “a function of renewed growth optimism as the delta wave abates,” he said.
Follow Bloomberg's Katie Greifield on Twitter at @kgreifeld
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